What happened in Afghanistan

Please read till the end. 

Few people asked me what's happening in Afghanistan and my views around the same.

From my limited understanding by reading books and listening to the subject matter experts on this topic, this is what I think has happened and is going to happen. 

Sequence of events :-

1. Taliban Government which comprised mainly of Pashtuns was established in Afghanistan in 1996. They governed under Sharia Law and there were gross violation of human rights, especially for women who were not allowed to educate or roam on the streets without men. 

To counter them, Northern Alliance was formed under the leadership of Ahmed Shah Masoud and other warlords like Marshal Dostum, Abdullah Abdullah etc. who represented mainly the ethnic minorities like Tajiks, Uzbeks etc. They challenged the radical government and wanted to bring a liberal establishment in place. 

2. Northern Alliance was limited to pockets and used to wage guerrilla war on the Taliban with limited resources and support from countries like India, Russia, Iran, Turkey etc. Taliban was mainly supported and trained by Pakistan Army and ISI. 

As the Al Qaeda attacks on US embassies around the world increased, US also started supporting the Northern Alliance with equipments as Al Qaeda was harboured by Taliban. Twin tower attacks on 9/11 changed the entire game and US entered actively in the picture. Now, Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda were their enemy number one and they wanted to prevent any further terrorist attack on US. 

3. Initially, US tried to negotiate with the Taliban through Pakistan asking them to hand over Laden but Mullah Omar, the leader of Taliban categorically refused. US then sent their military to Afghanistan to fight an on-ground battle with Al Qaeda and Taliban. Hence, Taliban Government was brought down after an offensive by US forces in December 2001 and Hamid Karzai was chosen as the President of Afghanistan. 

4. Northern Alliance came to power and many Taliban commanders and fighters came to Pakistan and started living as refugees in Balochistan and Waziristan region. Meanwhile, US hunt for Laden continued through reckless night raids and bombings which took heavy toll on civilians as well. 

5. Taliban leaders regrouped around 2004 in a bid to reclaim the power and started fighting a guerilla war against the Northern Alliance forces and US Army. They were supported by Pakistan in terms of resources and training. And funnily enough, Pakistan was also a partner for US in their "war on terror". So, one section of the Pakistani establishment used to assist US in their mission while the other would help Taliban, provide them safe haven. Full marks to the Pakistani agencies for coordinating this and keeping the "trust" of both the sides. 

6. Osama Bin Laden was killed in 2011 and with that, the actual purpose of US, which was killing Laden and finishing Al Qaeda was over. And hence, the US administration announced a phasewise withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by 2014. But the Military Industry Complex was profiting from this war on terror, hence they lobbied with the US administration to stretch the war further. 

7. When there was a growing voice in US for recalling the troops from Afghanistan, Trump moved ahead with his "peace plan". Hence, the famous Doha Accords were signed in 2020 and peace talks between the Northern Alliance and Taliban mediated by US began for taking the war to its logical conclusion. As per the deal, a common ground would be established between the two sides regarding the sharing of power and US will be vacating its troops by August 2021. 

8. By now, Taliban was mostly occupying the outskirts or the countryside regions while all the city centres and provincial capitals were under the control of Northern Alliance. Peace talks were unsuccessful and no common ground could be met while US stood firm with its decision of vacating Afghanistan by August 2021. Emboldened by the confidence, Taliban began its offensive attacks and one-by-one, all the provinces falling to the Taliban with Kabul finally captured today. Quite strange that the 3 lakh strong Northern Alliance Forces trained by US couldn't stand up to the Taliban fighters on the battlefield and it all fell like a pack of cards. Northern Alliance soldiers kept on surrendering and those who didn't surrender were butchered in broad daylight. There were bombings from US but to no effect. Taliban has officially come to power now. President Ashraf Ghani has left Kabul and reportedly taken refuge in Oman.

Now, because it was all a part of the "Great Game", it has far reaching implications for countries across the world. 

Afghanistan - As there is a change in the regime from a liberal establishment to a more radical setup, there is going to be issues of human rights violations, misgovernance and a bloodshed. Already, millions of Afghanis live as refugees in different countries and now more of them left Afghanistan. There are still few passionate leaders like Vice President Amrullah Saleh, Mashal Dostum, General Atta Mohammad who will not accept a Taliban Government and will continue to fight till their last breath in some way or the other, but the future looks bleak for them as of now. Other leaders of Northern Alliance have fled to ally countries like India, US, Tajikistan etc. 

US - Being a "leader of the free world", it was expected that US would oversee a peaceful transition of power in Afghanistan but it just packed its bags and left the country in disarray. Most likely, they cut a deal with Taliban for letting them escape safely without any damage. The reputation and credence of the "largest superpower" of the world has been hurt and they face lot many questions at home and abroad and as many challenges. Most prominent of that being China and with US now gone from Afghanistan, either it plans to deploy its military resources elsewhere to contain China or it has decided to just not confront China militarily. 

China - Because of China's close ties with Pakistan and Pakistan's ties with Taliban, it is expected that China will benefit from the situation as their Belt Road Initiative just got another prospective country to invest in and being a strategic location in Central Asia, it will be of much use. Also, Afghanistan being a mineral rich country, China can extract a lot many raw materials from there cheaply. That said, one threat it faces is a possible rise in insurgency in the Xinjiang province by ETIM (East Turkistan Islamic Movement) as they will get the patronage of Taliban. 

Pakistan - As of now, Pakistan emerges as the biggest benefactor of this entire episode. Having a Pakistan friendly government in Kabul and a flag bearer of Islam, it will provide "strategic depth" to Pakistani establishment to militarily and diplomatically hurt India. They will also get huge cache of arms and ammunition and terrorist training camps in Afghanistan to up the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. That said, there are also a couple of challenges to it in form of a possible refugee crisis as well as growing radicalisation in Pakistan as a spill over from Afghanistan. It is also to be seen if TTP (Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan) and PTM movement will be supported by the Taliban Government as that will destabilise the Waziristan area. 

India - India faces the foremost challenge of containing the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir as that is expected to rise on the back of Taliban support at the behest of Pakistan. Apart from that, India will perhaps engage with the Taliban Government to build some understanding. India has done a lot of infrastructure development and support in Afghanistan by building dams, schools, hospitals, highways there. And as acknowledged by the Talibani spokesperson recently, they will probably want India to continue providing such humanitarian aid in Afghanistan. There are many factions within Taliban and it can definitely be exploited. 

Afghanistan has been termed as a "Graveyard of empires" and another empire has fallen today after 20 years. We are back to the start of the cycle started in 1996. Next couple of years are going to be very happening in the Geopolitical space.