An amateur understanding of Russia - Ukraine Conflict

 In a very emotional speech couple of days back, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his decision of recognizing the independence of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic (together known as the Donbas region - part of eastern Ukraine). And today morning in another address , Putin authorized "military operations" in Ukraine and since then, a full fledged military campaign has been launched by Russia in Ukraine which has captured the eyes and ears of people globally. Most prominent question all around is if this is the beginning of the Third World War ? So what exactly is this conflict all about and what is the endgame here ?

A Brief Overview of the current situation :-

In 1991, the then Soviet Republic (USSR) disintegrated into 15 sovereign countries including Russia, Ukraine, Belarus etc. bringing an end to the Cold war era. At that time, a power differential was created between Russia and the west. Interestingly, Ukraine was the world's third largest nuclear power as thousands of USSR's nuclear weapons were left there. With their influence, the western superpowers including US, UK in 1994 convinced Ukraine to de-nuclearize (destroy the nuclear arms), sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and in return, together they along with Russia will guarantee Ukraine's security. In the last three decades, Russia has been gradually trying to grow its influence in the global power strata and reclaim its Soviet Era legacy. Ukraine on the other hand, grew closer to the west. 2014 was a major flashpoint in the Russia-Ukraine relations when there was a domestic revolution ( Revolution Of Dignity) within Ukraine to overthrow the sitting Government and Russia, seizing the opportunity, moved its troops to Crimea, which was a territory within Ukraine, and thereby annexed it subsequently. A ceasefire treaty, popularly called Minsk Agreement was signed between both the parties in the aftermath of the Crimea annexation to ensure the balance of power. 

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance led by US and the other European countries that was created in the aftermath of the second World War. To protect itself against the hegemonic Russia, Ukraine has been trying to join the NATO alliance and this has been a constant concern for Putin's Russia. NATO has been expanding eastwards and just in the last two decades, a lot many European countries including  Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria which are close neighbors of  Ukraine and Russia; have joined NATO and that kept discomforting Russia as no major nation would want its enemy on the door.

Ukraine joining NATO is a red line for Russia as that would disturb the balance of power in the region and to prevent that from happening, Russia had been moving its troops close to the Russia-Ukraine border for the last one year in a bid to threaten Ukraine from moving totally in the western camp. In return, Ukraine's resolve to work closer with the NATO countries grew and they conduced joint war exercises close to the border. Russia was also concerned particularly that the NATO was bringing its nuclear assets to Ukraine.

The buildup of troops continued from both the sides on the border. In a pre-emptive action on 21st February, 2022 President Putin recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and declared support to both the Republics. Both these regions situated on the Eastern part of Ukraine have a section of pro-Russia separatists and there has been a civil unrest in these provinces since the 2014 revolution when there was an independence referendum. In that historic speech, Putin asserted that he always wanted to work with Ukraine but the current Ukrainian Govt is a puppet regime of US and have worked against the interest of Russia. In line with the recognition of Donetsk & Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR), Russian troops invaded Ukraine in the early hours of 24th February in a planned military Blitzkrieg from multiple sides and targeted major military installations of Ukraine. With this, the 'big war' formally started between Russia and Ukraine. 

Russia's Objectives :-

A lot is being said about what Russia intends to achieve with the military invasion of Ukraine. Is it a bid to reinstate the erstwhile Soviet Republic ? Does Russia want to capture Ukraine and merge it with Russia ? In my understanding, Russia wants to achieve total independence of the newly recognized DPR & LPR, overthrow the current Govt in Ukraine and replace it with a pro-Russian Ukrainian Govt. The larger objective is to create a buffer space between Russia and NATO. The republics DPR and LPR will act as that buffer.

 Russia's concerns about Ukraine joining NATO and gaining nuclear assets do seem legitimate. They were pushed into a corner by the United States and didn't have a choice but to respond to the western hegemony. Russia initiated the attacks from three sides - Belarus to the north, Crimea to the South and Donbas to the East, in a very well war-gamed strategy with specific strikes on their naval base and airfields to mobilize their forces as fast as possible and simultaneously para-trooped Russian Special forces for targeted military operations.  As of now, Russian military has gained the air superiority and is trying to take control of the Ukrainian capital city Kyiv along with the other power centres of Ukraine and force a surrender of the Ukrainian troops on its terms to effect a regime change. Russia would at least want to take complete control of the region to the east of the Dniper river which effectively runs through the middle of Ukraine. 

So far, Russia has been successful in keeping the NATO forces away from the war zone and it is likely to remain this way as Russian military has a definite military advantage in the region due to fast mobilisation. Even if NATO decides to intervene, Russia will have advanced decisively by the time NATO mobilizes its forces and ammunition to Ukraine. Therefore, Russia will look to hedge its military gains in the diplomatic talks as and when they get to the table. 

Stakes for the world :-

Ukraine is a major agricultural producer and exporter for Europe and therefore, is known as the 'Bread Basket Of Europe'. Apart from this, if Russian forces get to the western border of Ukraine, they are standing right next to the NATO countries such as Poland, Romania etc. So, a hegemonic Russia destabilizes the power equations in Europe. US, being the global superpower, a leading NATO country and a historic enemy of Russia, can't be seen as a mere spectator of this conflict especially after an ugly end to their Afghanistan mission just few months back where their reputation of being a superpower was challenged and tarnished big time after the Taliban hastily took power in Kabul. It is also worthwhile to mention that US President Joe Biden ran a very high pitched election campaign in the runup to the 2020 Presidential elections where he constantly accused the former President Donald Trump of taking a soft stance against Russia. By the end of this year, mid term elections are due in US and so, letting Russia off easily will have major political ramifications for the Democrats. 

That said, there is a huge dependence of the European countries on Russia for their Oil and Natural Gas needs. Russia supplies 30-40 percent of Oil, coal and gas to many European countries including Germany, France etc. Smaller countries like Latvia and Finland get more than 90 percent of their gas from Russia. Therefore, at a time when Europe is facing covid-induced inflation and looking to revive its economy, it will be very difficult for Europe to decouple itself from Russian Oil and Gas supplies.  

What are the options for the west to counter Russia then ? Financial and trade sanctions, provide immediate monetary, logistical and ammunition support to Ukraine to hold their ground for as long as possible. Sending own forces to fight might trigger a world war that no country would like to afford at the moment. Therefore, they would like to arrive at diplomatic answers. However, even within Europe, there is a power game at play. France initially tried to act as a mediator between Russia and US and are expected to charter their response not entirely as dictated by the US. Germany similarly is expected to act a bit more neutral in their stance compared to the other EU countries. Any geopolitical crisis is an opportunity for all the countries to pursue their own national interests and engage with the stakeholders on their own terms and therefore, a coordinated response from the west might not be the reality. 

The silence of China so far has been interesting. Many people are saying China might use this opportunity to invade Taiwan but it seems highly unlikely. They would just observe the crisis unfold for the moment and won't get in between the clash of the west and Russia. 

Howsoever it is true that over the last few years, Russia have strategically made their economy as sanction proof as possible and therefore won't be relented that much by the sanctions, even President Putin won't want to fight a prolonged war and so look to negotiate diplomatically from a position of strength. 

India's skin in the game :-

In the 21st century world, India being the world's largest market, a fast emerging economy and a major power sphere can't remain insulated against any major geopolitical event of this scale. This becomes more significant since Russia is a major strategic partner for us. More immediately, we have two major concerns - a) To safely evacuate 15000 odd Indian citizens stranded in Ukraine, b) Rising fuel prices triggered by the conflict. Although our Ministry of External Affairs have carried out successful rescue missions in the past from the Middle East and Afghanistan, it is a big logistical and diplomatic nightmare to get thousands of Indian nationals back home. Since the Ukrainian airspace is closed, alternative routes through Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia etc. are being worked upon. As for the fuel prices, we might see the effect post 7 March when the ongoing Assembly elections end and inflation might continue to haunt us for a while. We also face risks of CAATSA sanctions imposed by the US against countries with certain defense procurements from Russia, Iran and North Korea (earlier we were hoping of sanction waivers in our case but it seems very very unlikely now). At a time when we were looking to expand our bilateral trade and cooperation with Russia, the current crisis might pose several challenges in balancing our trade interests and relations with Russia as well as diplomatic engagements with US and other strategic partners like France, European Union etc. 

Ukraine Government through its Ambassador in India has requested India's intervention to stop the conflict owing to the close ties between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin. And there was a telephonic conversation also last night between Modi and Putin regarding the issue. However, India in most likelihood won't ape the western countries' stance in this conflict and rightly so. So far, we have issued formal and neutral statements urging both the sides for restraint and diplomatic engagement. Howsoever it is true that in a rule based order, we can't not condemn such a military invasion especially when we ourselves have a hegemonic and expansionist neighbor in China. It is equally significant that Russia is our major defense exporter and we can't jeopardize our relations with a "time-and-tested" partner. We will be forced to pick a side but we should engage with all the sides and further our interests. As someone puts it rightly, "Sabka Saath - Sabka Vishwas - Kewal Apna Vikaas". 

The Endgame :-

The military clashes might go on for 2-3 days. After that, diplomatic channels will have to come to play for some sort of negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the United States. I hope and think that the situation will not spiral into a World war like situation and will be limited to Ukraine. In any case, this is a major event in setting the new Global World Order where a lot of knowns have been asserted. 

• United Nations might not be a strong enough forum to deal with such situations. We have already seen the ineffectiveness of UN in the context of Armenia-Azerbaijan war, Israel-Palestine conflict, Afghanistan in last couple of years and we are seeing it yet again. Perhaps, UN is powerful only in MUNs. 
  
• Nuclear Deterrence does work. Had Ukraine been a nuclear armed nation, Russia won't possibly have gone ahead with the military invasion
• Soft power and Hard power go hand-in-hand. One without the other is of no use. Ukraine tried to engage in diplomatic arrangements with the west but failed to build enough military capabilities to deter the Russian forces. 
• As a nation, you are on your own. No one will come to save your sovereignty and territory. When China mobilized its troops on the Ladakh border, India rapidly matched the deployment of troops and ammunition from its side to keep China at the bay. We did the same in Dokhlam to deter any possible Chinese incursion. 

So far, this has been a well planned move of Putin and is going as Russia had thought. The timing of the military action becomes so crucial as on the same day, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Russia with his ministerial delegation for bilateral talks. But it is to be seen for how long things remain under Putin's control and if he is outfoxed, what's the exit plan !! 

War in any manner is not the desired outcome as it only results in lost lives and aggreaved families. But in today's post covid world, where every country is looking inwards, such confrontations and military escalations are bound to happen.