Arithmetic behind 2024 General Elections - Is Modi coming back ?

We are roughly one year away from the 2024 General Elections in India, which promises to be a blockbuster political show not just for India but globally. India boasts of being the world's largest democracy and elections are more so noisy and people-engaging here. From the random tea stall gossip to heated newsroom debates, everyone has a say on who is winning and who should win. If anything, the political discourse has only turned more bipolar in the last decade, with a large section of the political right and the political left each becoming more opinionated and intolerant of opposing views. For the right-wingers, it's about getting Narendra Modi to his third consecutive term with an overwhelming majority, while the left supporters hope for a turnaround in the country's political landscape and they just want to see anyone other than Modi in that PM seat. How so much do we discuss issues, narratives, arguments, morals, ethics, etc., it all boils down to the numbers at the end in electoral democracy. A total of 543 seats will go to the polls next year and the winning party/coalition will be needing 273 of them. In the last two elections, Modi-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) won over 330 seats each time comfortably claiming the throne. Will it be any different this time? 

How do the numbers stack up today?

Currently, the NDA coalition comprises majorly BJP and a few regional parties like the Eknath Shinde-led Shivsena in Maharashtra, LJP (Pashupati Paras faction) in  Bihar, AIADMK, PMK in Tamil Nadu (this alliance is very shaky and can blow off any moment), Apna Dal in UP,  AJSU in Jharkhand, UPPL, AGF in Assam and few more. While the nature of this alliance is going to be very dynamic in the build-up to the elections, I assume a couple of regional parties in Bihar such as LJP (Chirag Paswan faction), VIP to be joining the NDA and the picture in Tamil Nadu is constantly evolving ( infighting between the two factions of AIADMK, AMMK continue). On the other side, the opposition alliance UPA (United Progressive Alliance) is also shaping up around the Congress party with various regional parties like DMK in Tamil Nadu, NCP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) in Maharashtra, RJD, JDU in Bihar, SP in Uttar Pradesh. There is a concerted attempt to bring in other regional parties like Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress, Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party, BRS in Telangana, and all the left parties within the UPA umbrella. While BJD in Odisha led by veteran Naveen Patnaik and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh led by Jagan Reddy continue to support BJP on the floor of parliament on various issues, they never joined NDA formally and are pretty distant from the opposition on most of the agendas. I expect it to remain the same going forward.

For the sake of my analysis, I have divided the 543 parliamentary constituencies into three categories:-

1) States where BJP/NDA is too strong in National elections (More than 80% strike rate expected) - 

• Uttar Pradesh - 80 seats
• Madhya Pradesh - 29 seats
• Gujarat - 26 seats
• Rajasthan - 25 seats
• North East - 25 seats
• Jharkhand - 14 seats
• Chattisgarh - 11 seats
• Haryana - 10 seats
• Delhi - 7 seats
• Uttarakhand - 5 seats
• Himachal Pradesh - 4 seats
• Goa - 2 seats
• Union Territories ( Jammu - 2, Ladakh, Chandigarh, Puducherry, Daman & Diu) - 6 seats

These comprise a total of 244 seats where Narendra Modi as a PM face is very popular and BJP has pretty solid organizational backing in these states. Some of these states are led by Opposition parties currently, such as Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Delhi, etc. but BJP has constantly polled above 50% in the Lok Sabha elections in these states and the Opposition is yet to pose any strong challenge to BJP here, be it in terms of the narratives, leadership or damaging the credibility or acceptance of Modi. Of these 244 seats, NDA had won around 188 (~78%) in 2014 and a whopping 215(~88%) in 2019. As per my understanding of the voting patterns, today's narratives, and leadership situation in these states, I expect NDA to win around 210 seats tentatively out of these 244 constituencies. ( I am being a bit conservative in my estimates and the numbers could go up to 220 in the best-case scenario for NDA ). 

2) States where BJP / NDA will be in a fight with the Opposition ( ~40-50% strike rate expected) - 

• Maharashtra - 48 seats
• West Bengal - 42 seats
• Bihar - 40 seats
• Karnataka - 28 seats
• Odisha - 21 seats
• Telangana - 17 seats

Compared to the previous category, the situation in these 196 seats is going to be very fluid and these are the states which are going to decide whether PM Modi will get a third term or not. In these six states, BJP is pitched against several strong regional parties and does not enjoy the organizational support it has in the first category states. Each of these states has its own set of issues that will determine the outcome of the 2024 General Elections. In Maharashtra, the split within Shiv Sena caused a major shift in the prevailing political equations with both Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray claiming the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. Rumor mills suggest another factionalism, this time led by Ajit Pawar in NCP, is imminent. As we wait to see the final nature of the alliances in Maharashtra, I expect NDA to grab anywhere between 25-30 seats from Maharashtra in the worst-case scenario. While the alliance of Congress, Uddhav Thackeray, and NCP looks pretty strong on paper, Maharashtra is one such state where Hindutva and nationalism are core issues in Loksabha elections, and PM Modi enjoys healthy approval ratings from the state. NDA's organizational strength in Maharashtra is also pretty considerable. With any more breakaways in the Opposition camp, the numbers for NDA will only go up in Maharashtra. In West Bengal, BJP surprised everyone by getting 18 seats in the 2019 elections becoming the leading Opposition party in the state where it had virtually no presence for decades. The assembly election in 2021 was also a very hyped one where Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress to a third term victory with 210+ seats but BJP overthrew Congress and Left to become the primary Opposition party in the state with a vote share exceeding 40%. While Mamata Banerjee looks all set to improve her tally from 2019 elections, BJP led by its local leaders such as Suvendu Adhikary, Dilip Ghosh etc. is trying to rejuvenate its cadre in the state which was hit by the disappointing assembly elections debacle and I expect BJP to win around 7-10 (probable seats in contention - Alipurduar, Asansol, Bangaon, Bankura, Birbhum, Purulia, Ranaghat, Bishnupur, Darjeeling, Kanthi, Jalpaiguri, Medinipur) seats in 2024 with the equations prevalent today. For the Opposition, West Bengal is a tricky state as Mamata Banerjee has to decide if she wants to fight in a formal alliance with the Congress party or not. A direct alliance will mean a counter-consolidation of votes for BJP, whereas the absence of an alliance will lead to a division of votes. Bihar is one such state where the BJP is not that strong in terms of local leaders and party organization but PM Modi enjoys a huge amount of goodwill among the Bihari voters who vote heavily along the lines of Hindutva and nationalism suiting the right-wing politics. While caste equation is also a major factor in Bihar, it gets subsided in national elections. I expect BJP to win around 25-30 seats from Bihar in 2024. If Chirag Paswan (and other local caste-based backward leaders like Mukesh Sahani, Jeetan Manjhi, Upendra Kushwaha, etc. ) join NDA before the elections, BJP can comfortably push its tally to 30+ seats. Karnataka is undergoing Assembly elections next month which is set to be a cliffhanger. But, in Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi is still the most popular leader in the state which is one of the only bastions for the BJP in Southern India. I expect BJP to retain at least 20 seats from Karnataka in the next General Elections. Odisha is a unique state where assembly elections and parliamentary elections happen simultaneously and while people vote overwhelmingly for Naveen Patnaik-led BJD in the Assembly elections, BJP was able to win 8 Lok Sabha seats from Odisha in 2019. Unless BJD formally joins the Opposition alliance, I expect the status quo to remain with BJP winning around 7-8 seats from Odisha again. Telangana is a state where BJP is a growing force and is expected to be the second number party in the Assembly elections later this year. BJP is expected to win 6-8 seats from Telangana in the General Elections if it carries the current momentum with itself. 

Overall, BJP is poised to win around 90-95 seats from these swing states in the worst case and the best case could be anywhere between 105-110. These are the swing states where the Opposition has the highest chances of restricting the BJP. If they are able to keep the BJP down to 60-70 of these 196 seats, the 2024 Lok sabha elections could well be a close shave. 

3) States where BJP / NDA are not in the fight ( <10% strike rate expected) -

• Tamil Nadu - 39 seats
• Andhra Pradesh - 25 seats
• Kerala - 20 seats
• Punjab  - 13 seats
• Union Territories ( Kashmir - 3, Lakshadweep - 1) - 4 seats

Due to perception and organizational limitations, BJP is very weak in these 101 seats. The best chance of winning any seat here for NDA will be in Tamil Nadu where an alliance with a united AIADMK could help NDA challenge on 5-7 seats. In Punjab, the BJP lost the plot since the farmers' protests but a weakened Congress gives them an opportunity to try and win 1-2 seats. In any case, I expect BJP's tally to remain 0-8 in these 101 seats. 

Summing up the numbers from the three categories, I am expecting NDA to win 305 (+-5) seats in the 2024 General Elections going by the issues, narratives, nature of alliances, and political landscape prevailing today. So, as of today, Narendra Modi seems to be returning back to power for his third term with a clear majority unless a major political upheaval takes place. In general circumstances, we can expect the volatility of 20-25 seats on both extremes. 

What are the major issues from both camps?

While the ruling government will try to sell its development model of welfare schemes such as providing water supply, free ration, pucca houses, easy access to credit, and more banking inclusivity, to the last man in the society, it will also highlight issues related to Hindutva and nationalistic sentiments, most prominently the construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya ( which is slated to be inaugurated in January 2024 - right before the polls). Countering Pakistan and China militarily and diplomatically along with a resilient fightback against Covid-19 will also be a key element of the ruling government's pitch for votes. 

For the Opposition, coming together on a single platform will be the biggest challenge. Projecting the right set of leaders, coming up with a comprehensive seat-by-seat strategy, and picking up the right political discourse are going to be crucial for the Opposition fight back in 2024. An effective Opposition unity could give them a slight window of restricting the NDA coalition below 250 and hence, forming the Government. Major issues where the Opposition could hurt the BJP are sub-regionalism (regional parties fighting on regional issues as opposed to national ones) and caste division of votes. They could also raise issues related to unemployment and inflation but in the backdrop of a global economic meltdown and India still holding up with better numbers, it will be tough for the people at large to shift from the BJP to the Opposition camp on this narrative. 

If the projected numbers above hold up, it will be the first occasion since Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru that a ruling Prime Minister comes back for his third term with a clear majority. While I don't claim to be an outright expert on Indian politics, I do have a fair understanding of electoral politics and voting patterns in India, and the projections above are based on my personal observations and opinions. I will try to keep writing about any major political development in the build-up to the 2024 elections which may change these numbers drastically.