Assembly Elections in Karnataka - everything you need to know about
Although it's raining cats & dogs in Bengaluru these days, the political atmosphere in the southern state of Karnataka is otherwise quite heated up and expected to remain so because of the state assembly elections on 10th May 2023. We are currently in the final phase of the election campaign and the stage is getting set for the polls on the 10th followed by the results on the 13th of May. BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is ruling the state government at the moment led by CM Basavaraj Bommai. Congress Party led by the veteran leader from Karnataka, Mallikarjun Khadge is the primary opposition party in the state and the main challenger to the throne. Former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddharamiah and the Congress Karnataka State President D.K Shivakumar are leading the election campaign for the Congress party in the state. Another major stakeholder in the elections is the JD(S) - Janata Dal(Secular) party led by former Prime Minister H.D Devegowda and former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy.
A total of 224 seats will go to the polls and the winning party will need to win 113 or more. Karnataka has had a history of hung assembly and in such a scenario, JD(S) party will be the kingmaker as was the case in the 2018 elections when BJP was the single largest party with 104 seats but Congress and JD(S) allied post elections to form the government. It should be noted that the government formed in 2018 led by H.D Kumaraswamy could last only one year and a good chunk of leaders defected from the ruling coalition to BJP, hence bringing them back to power. Veteran BJP leader B.S Yeddyurappa was appointed as CM and then, replaced by Basavaraj Bommai in July 2021 citing age issues. CM Bommai has an uphill task of bringing the BJP back to power in the only Southern state it governs and going by the current opinion polls, it seems the Congress party will edge past BJP in a close contest.
Political Geography of Karnataka
- Hyderabad Karnataka / Kalyana Karnataka:- As the name suggests, this is the northern part of the state that shares its boundary with Telangana. It includes 41 seats in districts like Bidar, Kalaburagi, Raichur, Yadgir, Bellari, Koppal, and Vijayanagar. This is one region in Karnataka where the Congress party has traditionally been strong. Even the Congress National President Kharge hails from this region. In the 2018 elections, Congress won 21 of these seats, whereas BJP could win only 15 seats. If Congress has to get a majority, this is one region where they could take a decent lead. This is a region demographically dominated by SCs and Lingayats. While Congress is banking on the popularity of veteran SC leader and its national President Mallikarjun Khadge, BJP tried to woo the voters with internal reservations within the SCs.
- Mumbai Karnataka / Kittur Karnataka:- This region comprises 50 seats in the districts like Belagavi, Dharwad, Bagalkote, Haveri, Vijaypura, etc. which borders the state of Maharashtra. Lingayats and Maratha voters play a crucial role here, who have traditionally sided with BJP in the past. Current Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai himself hails from the Lingayat community along with the stalwart BJP leader B.S Yeddyurappa, who is arguably the tallest Lingayat leader in the state currently. BJP had won 30 of these 50 seats in the last elections and if they are to come back to the government, retaining the tally in Kittur Karnataka, if not improving it, will be very significant.
- Central Karnataka:- Covering 26 seats in the four districts of Davanagere, Chitradurga, Shivamogga, and Chikkamagaluru, Central Karnataka is another region heavily influenced by the Lingayats. Former CM Yeddyurappa has represented the Shikaripura assembly seat in Shivamogga for decades and after retiring from electoral politics, his son B.Y Vijayendra is the BJP candidate from the Shikaripura seat. Various religious and caste-based Mutts are quite active in this region, hence caste and religion fundamentally affect the electoral politics. BJP dominated the region in 2018 winning 21 seats.
- Coastal Karnataka:- The 19 seats of the coastal districts Udupi, Uttara Kannada, and Dakshina Kannada are said to be a stronghold for BJP because of the development works done by the state and central governments and extensive organizational base of RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh - ideological base of BJP). Hindutva politics is very dominant in this region and BJP will hope to retain most of the 19 seats here.
- Greater Bengaluru:- These are the 32 seats around the capital city of the state - Bengaluru, which is also the IT capital of the state. Infrastructure is a key voting issue for the people of Bengaluru and this is one region where BJP was lagging behind Congress in 2018 despite being the single largest party in the state. In the final leg of the election campaign, BJP is planning a 2-day roadshow across the city by PM Modi, in a bid to influence the voters.
- Old Mysuru Region:- The largest region of the state in terms of seats, Old Mysuru is the area around the Southern Karnataka districts of Mysuru, Mandya, Tumkur, Hassan, Kolar, etc. which has a total of 57 seats. BJP, as an organization, is relatively weaker in this region whereas JD(S) is the biggest factor here. This region is dominated by the Vokkaligga community, who have traditionally voted for JD(S). Senior JD(S) leader H.D. Devegowda belongs to this community and despite his old age, he has been actively campaigning, trying to woo the voters sentimentally. Congress State President D.K Shivakumar is also a Vokkaligga leader and the battle in the Old Mysuru region will see many triangular fights, hence a tough one for the pollsters to predict.
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